关键词:居民杠杆率,杠杆率阈值,经济增长

Abstract:Based on the background of rapid rise of household leverage and "structural deleveraging", this paper establishes threshold regression model and SVAR model to analyze the impact of household leverage on economic growth using the relevant data from 2007 to 2017. The results show that:①residents' consumption, fixed asset investment, residents' leverage ratio and non-financial enterprises' leverage ratio have typical threshold effect on GDP, and the threshold value of residents' leverage ratio in China is 0.31; ②when residents' leverage ratio is lower than the threshold value, their own and residents' consumption can promote economic growth; when it is higher than the threshold value, the promoting effect decreased obviously. ③When the leverage ratio of residents is lower than the threshold, the negative effect of fixed asset investment on the economy cannot pass the significance test; when it is higher than the threshold, the fixed asset investment can effectively play a role in economic growth. ④No matter how to choose the leverage ratio of residents, the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth. ⑤In the long run, economic growth will decrease. The reason is that the accumulation of debt pressure has restrained consumption. With the decrease of consumption, the non-financial enterprise sector has to reduce production, and passive de leveraging has restrained economic growth.

Key words:leverage ratio of residents,threshold of leverage ratio,economic growth